Dark clouds hanging over Mattighofen

[Wasp]

https://www.20min.ch/story/oesterreich-toeffhersteller-ktm-steht-vor-der-insolvenz-103228108   

[skypig]

Can’t read that, due only English education.

But the story has been doing the rounds.

I heard “Gas Gas” has gone, and they are trying to sell Husky?
Is this correct?

Not looking great. In hindsight expanding too fast?
And “quality issues” associated with Indian production of some parts.

I have five KTMs, two of them branded “Husqvarna”.

[Wasp]

Endless growth together with reckless immigration is now all nearing the end. KTM want go under, they will just regroup, ditch useless projects like GP racing (60Mio per year) , electro bikes and “luxury cars” . A reliable simple bike to commute and sell to everyday users would be a strong backbone for the future. Globally most roads going down in speed limits and exotic high-powered bikes can only be used for track days. But with all the dark clouds looming (hyperinflation, environmental issues, military conflicts etc) most people will have other things to worry about, than burning money on expensive race bikes. There is also the factor, that this upcoming generation will look at using fuels in a different way. 

[pokey]

Whats a Cagiva?

Has happened to a lot of bike companies and luckily for Polaris the Snow machine people, they did a quick back peddle and canned their great Victory brand when they bought out the ailing Indian brand name. The last 20 years seen a rise in the cruiser market and with every glut comes a fall and all the Japanese brands had a cruiser brand, not so many now.

The many British marques squandered their market and discounted the Japanese rise all to late. the Spanish guys lasted a bit longer though many great Euro marques like DKW dissolved. Diversifying your portfolio is a double edged sword as all the firearms come motorcycle brands CZ Husqvarna and BSA reflect.

KTM had a massive growth spurt and for a brief moment were on top of the world though with brittle bones a collapse was inevitable. Rather than concentrate all your products on the one genre "sport" a long term strategy over many styles is a proven formula. Piaggio bought most of the Italian brands and stopped feeding what it couldnt sell to the Chinese.

 Japan is no longer the home for many brands as even with a diversified range and a solid foundation that is not advertised and glorified in scooters and commuters that sell 5 :1 against large bores they know that off shore assembly in China and Thailand was the only way to stay afloat. Harley are riding the razor blade distancing the brand just enough from the newly created electric brand as they arnt confident, the failed Indian made small bore street models and the ignorance of the traditional  core market which kept them breathing through the AMF years. Without  government back up they world be history.

The next to have a nap I feel will be the resurrected Triumph brand as its core is heritage models and its ever changing but still the same sports models. The release of the TF MX bikes was giving the market what it didnt need, a bike that Yamaha and KTM already had. Its like spreading your legs and saying "Kick me , kick me good."

[Wasp]

From my own experience , most sales are going to the 45-70 year old bikers . Many need to be lowered , to make them feel safer and when that does not work anymore , the last bike they buy is a Can Am or , Ural sidecar,or Harley Trike , before they hang up the boots or pass away. The clientele is definitely dwindling by the year. The younger ones are mostly busy servicing their mega mortgages and putting their offspring through school.Thats what I find anyway. The only increasing market is women, biking with their wife's.(mailny cruisers ) They have the dual income and fewer commitments. ......Pokey how do you see the future market in brands and type of bikes ?

[pokey]

I was surprised to see the BMW1800 airhead and Suzuki announcing a 2025 Hyabusa though blind freddie and his dog could see the Chinese pit bike plague being replaced with soon to be landfill battery things. Its going to get worse before it gets better.

A fickle time indeed and the motor industry in general is being pushed from all angles. Electric bikes are not being picked up as fast as interested parties would like, its as if they were not designed by a rider as we all know why we choose to ride and what we enjoy about it and a heavy battery and unsprung motor in hub isnt it, even if you like heavy everyone knows you buy a Harley for the potato potato sound. Europe is pushing back against the Euro regulations as they find the regulations unattainable and I agree. For any alternate power source to be successful it needs the golden square, infrastructure  range affordability versatility and electricity is nowhere even close.

Every market is different, the USA love their big cars big trucks and big cruisers. Asia and Europe are into scooters and small bore with the humble Honda Cub  the most sold bike in history, pity they are now made from poo. The rest of the world is eclectic and buy whatever . Simply visiting your local array of dealers reveals a distinct move away from fun bikes and trail, MX due i surmise from the removal of riding locations. Large Tourers are rare Sports Tourers are rare with the bulk of offerings being fashion statements like Bobbers and retro cool hideous creations but thats what new riders buy till they learn how awful they are and give up riding or buy a Sports bike. Sports bike demand is driven by MotoGP win on Sunday buy on Monday so when that changes is when the regional Rossi look for another thrill. Used Sports bikes change hands faster than a mobile phone in a middle eastern bazaar. The area with most growth is in Adventure varients in particular soft roaders as they provide capability comfort usability and a monecum of offroad ability. Moto Guzzi V100 and Stelvio Yamaha Tracer Suzuki V Strom Kawasaki Versys Triumph Tiger with the well heeled opting for BMW along with the obligatory branded helmet jacket and whatever else the logo fits on.

So where are we headed and which style and brands of bike do we get? My riding career is on the run home where I spend more time fettling and polishing than I do leisure riding though I feel fortunate to have had the opportunity to be part of the boom time and I wont be troubled by having to choose which letters of the Alphabet AC DC or HO and until then my 10 year old 1200 Italian tractor will provide when not vying for shed space with the queens. Harley wont survive another cash crisis and its barely getting by environmental laws, the v rod didnt make it. BSA wont last as it was late to the retro party. When India grows Enfield will be absorbed by Hero. Honda is still trading on its history and relies on yuppie sales, a risky strategy heading for a big loss. Suzuki are always reserved  with only a glimpse of brilliance and they will survive but need another GT750 or a katana or a Busa and not a RE5. Yamaha innovate and are good at diversifying so they will survive. Kawasaki i think will be swallowed unless it can open a new market on its own. Triumph had to own Moto2 so if that goes the board is off to the Caribbean for fruity cocktails. Piaggio will dump a few more brands like Aprilia and Moto Guzzi will have its swan song. Ducati like Triumph are reliant on the continuation of motorsport. The smaller and boutique brands will be pressured out and i doubt Ural will even know nor care what everyone else does.

 What i would like to see is a return to injected force fed 2 stroke ICE technology where great inroads have been made ,match that with alternate fuels and construction materials and its a winner. Im still at a loss at why engineers insist on wasting all the generated engine heat energy to the air when it could be recycled and used for electrical boosting similar to a KERS.   As for which bike we get I hope its not a Bobber..

[PeterC]

That is a very well scripted piece. I happen to agree with your comments, which is unlike me. The winds of change are "blowing", picking a winner is a lottery. Bike manufacturers need to maintain their individuality to appel to me. I am considering re registering the H1 triple again

[Wasp]

Pokey , you are absolute right about the continents and their specific needs and taste. The thing that needs to be mention is each continents population and density. I know as a fact that Honda is using the surplus from the scooter sales to prop up the big bike market and of course the money pit> racing. Companies that purely rely on race bike sales could be in lots troubles from now on.So as long as Honda is prepared to forfeit a portion of the profit to build and develop big bikes , we can still enjoy them .On the other hand I must say why do you need a 2300cc cruiser A GSX1400 would do a much better job in my eyes. BMW is no offering 1800cc as well .......

[pokey]

Indeed a sad state of affairs. Brands building bikes not for ability but for the lowest common denominator and thats style. A quick peruse through the for sales and the words "Turns heads" appears far to often for my liking. Am not nor ever been into poser bikes which brings me to the Muscle bikes. Triumph Rocket 3 Ducati Diavel and the BMW 1800. Absolutely useless for anything other than grabbing the paper and milk on a Sunday morning and turning heads after a soy almond latte mocha. Why one needs so many CC to do that .. I can see a dozen girls in a line all holding their little finger up whatever that means.

Brands have always pandered to a bit of bling, bathtub Triumph was an early one and then the Japanese trail bikes with chrome bits though they were sort of fit for purpose and now we have stupid bikes like Virago and anything called or looks like a Vulcan or bobber. The American chopper with Ape hangers and sissy bars im sure were designed to make a bike as unrideable as possible and billions believed they were cool though I do more than smile at the Japanese Bouzouki as that surely has to be a piss take at the USA macho empire.

One of the things I liked was riding with the mates on a Saturday. Friday afternoon it was service and maintenance for a hopeful early start in the forest for a full days ride with grubby smiles all round except on the faces of the girlfriends. Girls just didnt ride bikes then or rarely and if they did it was an SL100 and that was never going to work . Granted many girls now are great riders 2 I road ride with on occasion who dont receive nor give any favors from the crew in language or politeness. Marg VFR800 and her daughter Sarah Aprilia RSV Mille though they are a rare breed and use the bikes to the full.

It seems brands have taken note that women have started buying bikes and designed products for them and any new rider who wants to Turns heads and thats business. Demand then supply. The issue is core buyers have less product that is function over form. Now its got to look cool then lets see how it works and take credit.

"Move your ass" didnt go over well when an Ex wanted to learn how to ride but we know anything else is driving. Just checked out the big 4s websites and noted the obvious absence of off road products and thats where we gained the basic skills of moving your weight and feeling the brakes to get the bike where you want it. Had to show her a video of the  monkey on a sidecar before it clicked what had to happen.
The evolving world and who has expendable income and what they want has always and will always be the design of the commercial motorcycle even if it makes SFA sense to riders who dont need Traction control or ABS as it pays the bills and thanks to do gooder political groups its law.
 
As a result we have inexperienced riders relying on electronic aids to do the hard work and increasing insurance bills .... Sounds like MOTO GP where the bike receives map changes via GPS for every corner and the rider steers it and some times brakes. Took the big goose to work today. 2 cyl 2 Valve 1200 and It thumped and tempted me  for a sickie via the range where all the worries of the world vanish. The hills can wait till the morning and I can be sure there will be nothing that turns heads other than a great corner as the coffee shops are all within 5K of the dealers on the coast as Ducati retro scramblers  Indian FTR  have a tank not much larger than a Victa. Indeed a sad state of affairs but they look cool. To some.

[Wasp]

Brands have always pandered to a bit of bling, bathtub Triumph was an early one and then the Japanese trail bikes with chrome bits though they were sort of fit for purpose and now we have stupid bikes like Virago and anything called or looks like a Vulcan or bobber. The American chopper with Ape hangers and sissy bars im sure were designed to make a bike as unrideable as possible and billions believed they were cool though I do more than smile at the Japanese Bouzouki as that surely has to be a piss take at the USA macho empire.


$500 for a rear tire that last 3-5 thousand Km  (only used in the middle  )

[skypig]

Pokey, I agree. The world has changed.

Watch a car advertisement. It’s all about “colours that suit your lifestyle” and “connectivity”.
At the end of the advertisement, you would have no clue as to: power/number of cylinders/seating capacity/transmission options (but extremely unlikely that a manual option exists)/towing ability or even fuel type (petrol or diesel. Or range if it was electric.)

So, I would assume this indicates the priority for the average buyer.
Anecdotally, one of the younger pilots at work bought a brand new car. I asked him about it, and he didn’t appear to know if it was a 4 or 6 cylinder model. I was gob smacked.

In the 1969 Honda 750 owner’s manual: It contained instructions for adjusting the valve clearances. In the 2024 manual it doesn’t. But it does caution you against drinking the contents of the battery. Is this advancement, or indictment?

In the case of KTM, they seemed successful partially on their slogan “Ready to Race”. They might have been a bit more expensive, but had top quality components (Brembo, WP, Pankal for eg). Also quite innovative and often upgraded more frequently than the competition. Eg they upgraded the “too stiff” MX frames without waiting for the four year cycle.

I believe they started using Chinese cranks and other parts in some models. Failures started to affect their reputation poorly.

Buying Husky and Gas Gas seemed crazy - what advantages to competing with themselves just to be able to sell a red version and a white version?

The current situation is disappointing and sad, but almost predictable.

[pokey]

For reasons none of us could fathom last year one of the crew turned up for a ride on a brand spanking 1800 Boooolivarde. I asked if 1800 was the number to call for RACQ when it fell over.

 Kept up okay on easy roads but on the twisties he wanted to know why no one passed him, most said because there wasnt room as his knees stuck out too far and i said i liked the pretty sparks it made. Sold it 3 months later after the second rear tyre, perhaps changing his name in chats to KFC helped a bit.
 Reminded me of a time in the 70s when a mate bought his first bike and wanted to ride the forests with us and he had a shiney new Motosport. Didnt look very new after 5 hours chasing 2 strokes on wet clay forest trails and up steep skinny boulder and fallen tree strewn mountain goat tracks. It didnt need to carry extra fuel so not all bad though it did stink like an old BBQ.

I dont understand priorities for some. My son isnt interested in any of my  bikes at all though wanted my old yamaha powered celica cause it looked cool though didnt want it when i said he could have it unless i changed it to an auto. I bought him an Iphone instead.

No secret the motorcycle is the two wheeled tobacco of the modern age as the government would like to ban them though the taxes fines insurances licensing and registrations are too tasty to pass by so covertly they remove opportunities and increase costs to use them, a win win for the authorities and they fulfill electoral promises on safety policing the greenhouse effect and whatever else they want to crunch numbers for.

Its not all bad with a few good new bikes on offer however you do need to search as most dont afford an advertising budget. What we wont see in the future are bikes built for riders but controlled products. Asia wont give up its scooters though they will all be Electric more so than they are now, China has millions of them already. The mainstream bikes will be generic shared technology full of rider non switchable limited trackable assist sensors with brand specific shades of spokey dokes and hand grip streamers much like cars are now.

 Money will still buy you specialty vehicles capable of long distance all terrain for those with a spare $100G+ though motorsport will be gone as everything is the same and performance modifications illegal. Harley wont be selling bikes but will still sell you a jacket jeans badges helmets toaster ovens and a soy mocha latte though the trademarked potato potato sound will be partnered with instore Mcdonalds kiosks for a final sale of would you like fries with that? Many component manufacturers like Mahle have already diversified away from the traditional products as they seen it coming years ago. Bikes as we know them will be in history museums beside steam engines.

[Wasp]

This week we had a new electric bike in for measuring the shock and forks. I normally do not test ride anymore, as I can feel it stationary and the buzz of riding a new model has long gone. This time it was a bit different; the center of gravity is lower than on a petrol bike and of course I could not help myself to judge one of those creatures personally. 
The owner had to log in with his phone and then attach it to the bike. Start up. Lights are flashing on the screen; the computer is starting up and checking for all sorts of things. Then all clear and green to go. No bark, just a little hissing noise. Done a few stoppies and looked for humps. All smooth and good now. Time to cruise. Top speed is set via the computer, no spluttering or running on when sitting on the limit. No hungry engine noise that pushes your adrenaline for more revs . Smooth and seamless acceleration , reaching 110 kmh just like that .The surrounding scenery appears more intense, since you don’t have to watch the speedo , revs and change gears. Different, that is for sure. I think that will bring in a whole different clientele and different type of people. I compare it with motorized sports plane and a soarer. All in all , different but pleasant nevertheless.

[PeterC]

They will be the future at some stage. No noise may be a blessing?

[pokey]

You see the memes and stickers all over the place stating loud pipes save lives. I think most are by HD owners though there is a bit of truth in it as other road users need all the help they can get to know someone else is close by. Many EV makers have the fake  sound tracks so pedestrians can look up from there phone for 2 seconds and not step out blindly and deafly. There are a few other downsides to electrics even if we dont start the taboo green discussion.

Brake wear is harsher as the bikes are heavier. If as most models there is no engine braking so backing off results in a roll on till braked. Traction is another issue as the torque is always present and a wheel slip isnt as easy controlled unless it has modern programming. Range anxiety isnt only felt by riders but by the machines as once you reach  the set point say 25% charge the bike goes into safe mode resulting in limp mode and 40KPH isnt what one wants on a busy roadway. Im sure more modern systems will attend to these oversights though the silence isnt golden.

We have a few Electrics on trial at work and there are lots of issues with them mainly ergonomic reliability and increased routine maintenance issues when compared to the existing bikes. The only thing the electrics have over the Honda is no fuel bills and better suspension. As said by many I dont think Electrics are there just yet though you would think by now they would be a lot better if they can get better.