In 20 years time..

[tony27]

Don't believe they will be, they expect someone else to do everything for them & be grateful to them for the privledge.
Ask any modern day club what their members are like & how many actually help out at all other than leaving their crap behind as they leave the venue

[oldfart]

And I bet our fathers said the same about us.

[Nathan S]

More generally:

The availability of technology will eliminate a lot of these worries. How long ago were MIG welders out of reach of the average home-mechanic? I remember my high school had a CNC lathe and it was worshipped as a piece of true unobtanium... Nowdays you can get a Chinese TIG from Ebay, and even 5-axis CNC mills aren't worth too much.

Similarly, when I look at cars with known weak points, the aftermarket always fills the void. ~15 years ago, I said "a lack of available gearboxes will kill off Subaru WRXes in another decade or so"...  In reality, you can buy brand new internals from a dozen different suppliers.
Likewise the $8k replacement cost on piss-weak Volvo FWD automatics was prediced to be their downfall once the cars were worth less than $20k - the rebuild kits are $270 + freight out of the USA (and funnily enough, the cost of a rebuild has declined as thevalue of the cars has declined..). The slightly later FWD Volvos had $2500 drive-by-wire throttle modules as their weak point - now available for $370 exchange on Ebay...

Same sort of thing is true for older bikes - there's no reason to think it won't also be true of the bikes that are currently moderns...

Also: TM Bill earns my "Drunken Post of the Month" Award. 

[TooFastTim]

OK some good points in there about the durability of alu frames and the future after market stuff.. Perhaps my example of the Beta zero was a bad one because the bottom of trials bikes take a hammering and it was at the bottom that bits were falling off regularly.

Bill, VMX isn't about OUR perception of the ideal bike but the 30/40/50 yo's perception. Sure, presently, most of us fit into this demographic but in 20 years time there will be a new generation there and they will hanker after the YZF450's, CRF450s etc. and, as Firko says, the state of the art at that time will be electric and CF frames. The definition of VMX must change with time.

[TM BILL]

Bill, VMX isn't about OUR perception of the ideal bike but the 30/40/50 yo's perception. Sure, presently, most of us fit into this demographic but in 20 years time there will be a new generation there and they will hanker after the YZF450's, CRF450s etc. and, as Firko says, the state of the art at that time will be electric and CF frames. The definition of VMX must change with time.

No there wont , VMX was born in the late 80s and is a passion of a couple of generations , i believe in 20 yrs some of us will still be actively involved in some aspect of VMX.

The next generations wont give a flying fork about bikes they rode or pretended to race today . We were privallidged to have lived and raced through an era when MX was at its peak and bike development was constantly evolving.

They dont have that , im sure a few will want to get involved with the VMX bikes we ride , race , own today as they were what dad , uncle , big bro raced or just because to some they will be mechanical odditys.

VMX is a sport / pastime for a couple of generations , what comes after is what it is but it aint VMX

Its not just about the bikes its about attitude and passion, we have it they dont / wont .

[Mike52]

Due to Greenhouse gasses/ global warming / erosion / greenies /  fuel only available to the rich , I think you will only find a MX bike or any sort of off road fun vehicle on an X Box.

Forgot Dangerous.

[firko]

While I understand what drives Bills negativity for the future I think the dirt bike will still be around in 20 years time but the internal combustion engine might not be powering them. I genuinely believe that battery/electric powered bikes will be pretty common and off road riding will be a whole different ball game with bikes weighing 60kg and being little bigger than a downhill mountain bike. The electric engine won't need a gearbox because of it's flat torque curve and won't need brakes because of the inherent engine braking. Frames will be made from Carbon fibre and many of the bolt ons will be made from recycled plastic.

VMX will still be around with the current crop of motocross bikes being looked upon by 2033's racers as heavy, primitive old dinosaurs. The sport will be little different to what it is today except for the bikes being used. Pre 60/65/70/75 and Evo bikes will be considered museum pieces and pre 90 bikes will be ridden by the crusty old farts and considered a bit like pre 65 is today. Pre 2000 will be the main class and the few YZ450F and CR450Fs that survived will be the ace race ride along with Husky 360 and Kato 250/300 two strokes.

[Graeme M]

I think I agree with you there Firko. I honestly can't see MX/Enduro etc surviving as is for the next 20 years. Energy concerns, safety worries and environmental issues can be expected to become more prominent. For off-road motorcycles to survive they will need to adapt. Lighter more MTB like machinery will be the future, powered by electricity most likely. The KTM Freeride in electric guise is the forerunner in my view. I also doubt we will see motocross as extreme as it is today but you never know.

As for VMX it's anyone's guess, but it may prove difficult to convince the authorities that racing loud, polluting, petrol driven monstrosities is OK. In fact, even getting petrol in 20 years time may be impossible. A lot will depend on where the current scares re energy depletion/global warming etc end up.

Audi e-bike... a glimpse of where we are going?

[Graeme M]

Then again...

Nothing much has changed in the last 20 years has it?   

[Nathan S]

A mate has been building electric powered MTBs. His lastest one is as quick as his YZF450 from 0~70kph - and it's been throttled back because the MTB ergos are all wrong for the amount of grunt it has. Apparently I was the first person to not spit themselves off it on their first ride..
I've been at him to fit it into a 125 or possibly big wheeled 85 roller.

If that's the future, I have no fear of it.

Petrol will become much harder to get and much more expensive, but I dont reckon there will ever come a time when petrol/petrol subsitute is simply unavailable.

[35elsinore]

A 60kg bike with an obese generation on it sounds top heavy and dangerous. There will be home made petro-chemical plants, fuel being run around like moon shine was on the black market.
I dont think stereo typing all the baggy arse brigade as the same is fare. The percentage is probable the same as grumpy old men in VMX.
Merry Christmas to all
Cheers Troy

[firko]

I became convinced that electricity is the future after doing a couple of laps around the pits and paddocks on the MA owned electric dirt bike at the Conondale Nats. I was pretty impressed with how smooth and easy to ride it was. I've got a little kids electric chopper that I found on a council cleanup and even it can drag my athletic 120kg around with ease.
                                                                                               
                                                                                 
           

[firko]

KTM has their finger on the pulse.....             
                                                                 
And so does Stealth http://www.stealthelectricbikesusa.com/index.html
                                                                 
Comoto is onto it as well http://thekneeslider.com/archives/2010/01/13/2010-comoto-a-very-lightweight-electric-motorcycle/
                                                                     

[mboddy]

Petrol will become much harder to get and much more expensive, but I dont reckon there will ever come a time when petrol/petrol subsitute is simply unavailable.

Brew your own fuel.

[TM BILL]

I dont think stereo typing all the baggy arse brigade as the same is fare. The percentage is probable the same as grumpy old men in VMX.

Merry Christmas to all
Cheers Troy

I apologise to the few young people out their who are decent people , our own Michael (Frosty ) is one such young person 

So enlighten a misserable C%&T whos in VMX to the differences between one baggy arse no hoping prick and another 

While i see electric bikes have a future they are not for me , i have ridden one of those Zero bikes and while the novelty factor was ok it was no substitute for a motorcycle .