OzVMX Forum
Clubroom => General Discussion => Topic started by: TooFastTim on December 22, 2012, 02:58:50 pm
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What with the end of the world being one big wet fart I shall make another prediction of doom: In 20 yrs VMX will be in trouble. OK here's why I think this: 20 years ago we began to see the first aluminum framed bikes and, I'd like you guys to discuss this, aluminum frames are not durable. They work harden, After 20-30 years of use, first in varying levels of competition and ultimately as field bikes the frames will be finished. So what bikes will we be riding in 20 years time?
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Yeah, but in 20 years time you will be able to 'print' alloy frame at home...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW-2xaIDtMk
Won't be a problem... ;D
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in 20 years I won`t be riding bikes.
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Electric motor, carbon fibre frame and computer controlled pneumatic suspension, plastic wheels and no need for brakes due to electric engine braking............the end of the world as we know it.
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didnt poms have alloy M/x 2 stroke? to many pre xmas margareetas cant think of the name
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Greeves Mikey.
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I'd like you guys to discuss this, aluminum frames are not durable. They work harden, After 20-30 years of use, first in varying levels of competition and ultimately as field bikes the frames will be finished.
.....I don't think the frames will be your problem, it's the modern fourstroke engine that has longevity issues. ::)
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...we will still be hearing Suzuki owners debating the eligibility of their swingarms. ::)
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I will still be riding the ktm300, Cro mo frame, 2 stroke - maybe have a problem getting petrol..
Brett
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Hopefully I'll still be riding my pre65 Dirttracker at 73, inspired by people like Col Metcher & Pancho Wally.
Or a zimmer frame.
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In 20 years time we will really be struggling to find parts for our pre 85 bikes, so enjoy it while it lasts ;D
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Imagin trying to explain to non Vmxers why we are trying to race 70 year old bikes (pre 60) 60 years (pre70) its hard enough now to explain why we do it .
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In 20 years tie I'll be an even grumpier old man ! I love to think I'm still riding ! As for bikes there will be plenty of DR's, TTR.s Still going strong. Curly
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Gnnn.....I was trying to kick off a debate on the relative (un) merits of alu frames put into a VMX context. You mob go and hijack the thread. I'm going to sulk now...... 8)
I reckon alu frames suck. They're expensive, bulky and alu work hardens. I once saw a 15 yo Beta zero trials bike (first alu framed off road bike if you exclude Greeves) and it was rooted. Bits of the frame would crack and fall off with regularity. So how many alu framed bikes will be around in 20 years?
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I'd like you guys to discuss this, aluminum frames are not durable. They work harden, After 20-30 years of use, first in varying levels of competition and ultimately as field bikes the frames will be finished.
.....I don't think the frames will be your problem, it's the modern fourstroke engine that has longevity issues. ::)
Ain't that the truth and guys will still be bopping around on their standard bore XL/XR's
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If alloy frames are all broken there'll be many aftermarket new replica's being available, if not it'll be KTM's cleaning up :-)
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KTMs are lucky to last 20min let alone 20 yrs.
If you read the posts over you will work out that parts wont be a problem as you will be able to 'print your own at home' :D :D
And they wont be electric Firko as all the elec will be used to keep our ever warming planet cool enough for the soft cocks that work in offices.
My pick is compressed air powered mountain bikes. Very light and completely "re-chargable" Everyone will have one and they will assist us to live well into our hundreds.
Mine will just have a Wasp logo....oh and 3 wheels ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Gnnn.....I was trying to kick off a debate on the relative (un) merits of alu frames put into a VMX context. You mob go and hijack the thread. I'm going to sulk now...... 8)
I reckon alu frames suck. They're expensive, bulky and alu work hardens. I once saw a 15 yo Beta zero trials bike (first alu framed off road bike if you exclude Greeves) and it was rooted. Bits of the frame would crack and fall off with regularity. So how many alu framed bikes will be around in 20 years?
Apart from the afore mentioned Greeves (witch have seemed to be very durable ) and the YZM 500 then WTF do aluminium frames have to do with vintage motocross ???
Are you suggesting Tim that in 20 yrs that (supposing they last ) todays ali framed 4 stoke shitters will be considered vmx bikes ???
Mate we soooooooooooooo see it differently if thats the case :)
In 20 yrs time i would like to think that i will still be riding /racing and on the same bikes i do it on today . I dont for a minute think my opinion of the crap they call motocross bikes today would have changed any more than i imagine the poxy things will evolve much more in the next 20 yrs .
In 20 yrs i think the possible issues will be getting land to race on ( its already getting harder due to noise issues thanks to those diesal shitters they ride today ) and being able to afford fuel for my race bikes .
Depending on your pov VMX cuts off at 1974, 1977, 1981, 1984, 1989 , after 1989 i think if you surveyed the current vmx community a large percentage would agree that its somthing ( old bikes ? ) but it aint VMX.
Do you really think that in 20 yrs the current crop of baggy arsed forkwits who masqeraude as MX riders and who are bought up to belive that they are entightled to a living and that everything is disposable will really want to pick up a shitty old dirt bike from today and go masqurading as MX riders a second time round ::)
What we have is special for our generations :) enjoy it and long shall VMX as we know it remain :) but i would rather see it run its course or burn out with its current mix of enthusiast and competitors than become a shadow of its former self with wankers on diesal shitters :-*
Trials i dont give a flying fork about ;D nice to practice going slow on if thats your thing ;)
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Mine will just have a Wasp logo....oh and 3 wheels ;D ;D ;D ;D
And 5 or 6 on the line of a 40 gate start at the start of a race and 3 finishers ;D
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KTMs are lucky to last 20min let alone 20 yrs.
Are you crazy ???
At Classic Dirt 32 the pre 2010 open class will be full of KTM 300's and the VIP guest will be Antonoi "bugs" Carolli. :)
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In 20yrs time I'll be looking over my shoulder trying to push start my slider and yelling to Slides "stop winging about you gammy leg and PUSH!
Cheers pancho.
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TFT,If the frames work harden,I am not a metalurgist & also I know nuffink about the subject, But would not alloy swingarms fit into the same category,sure they are not under the same stresses as a frame but I would reckon they would cop a fair bit of twisting & flexing especially on a big bore,they have been factory fitted since the late 70's to most mxer's followed a few years later with the enduro models & they are still going strong for the most part ;),All the current generation 4 bangers will be garage queens in 20 years coz the motors will all be knackered & the blokes who rode them in the day will all have droopy ear lobes from the stupid forking stretching rings they put in them :D
As for VMX we will still be riding,restoring & bullshitting about our then 59 year old pre 75 bikes :)
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.......they'll still be banging on about RM B swingarms and having to shorten the travel of pre '78 bikes...... ::)
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Yeah and the powers to be still wont be losin' a moments sleep about it :D
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Not a good idea to use the RM B optional swingarm anyhoo Mont it might fall to bits :P
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i think there optimistic going for 20 years as well ,10 will see me out
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You clowns have got it all wrong. We are trying to use our alloy B arms now before hardening, brittleness, electrolysis, osmosis and termites set in and keep our good steel arms for later.
Who's the smart ones now...huh :P
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Haa Don't sweat on it, as in twenty years the save the planet do gooder morons will have shafted two and three wheeled machines. (for everyone's safety of course!)
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(This post begun many hours ago)
The first mainstream aluminium framed MX bike (1997 CR250) is sixteen years old now. They're not showing any more signs of fatigue problems than chromoly frames of the same age.
I'm no fan of aluminium frames, but the manufacturers all worked out that fatigue life could be a problem, and built them with an emphasis on longevity, rather than weight.
The fact they're made from old Pepsi cans will not be a significant factor in 20 years' time.
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"Those baggy arse forkwits" ... will be running the show by then and the pre 60 bikes will be pushing up daisy along with their owners.
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Don't believe they will be, they expect someone else to do everything for them & be grateful to them for the privledge.
Ask any modern day club what their members are like & how many actually help out at all other than leaving their crap behind as they leave the venue
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And I bet our fathers said the same about us.
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More generally:
The availability of technology will eliminate a lot of these worries. How long ago were MIG welders out of reach of the average home-mechanic? I remember my high school had a CNC lathe and it was worshipped as a piece of true unobtanium... Nowdays you can get a Chinese TIG from Ebay, and even 5-axis CNC mills aren't worth too much.
Similarly, when I look at cars with known weak points, the aftermarket always fills the void. ~15 years ago, I said "a lack of available gearboxes will kill off Subaru WRXes in another decade or so"... ::) In reality, you can buy brand new internals from a dozen different suppliers.
Likewise the $8k replacement cost on piss-weak Volvo FWD automatics was prediced to be their downfall once the cars were worth less than $20k - the rebuild kits are $270 + freight out of the USA (and funnily enough, the cost of a rebuild has declined as thevalue of the cars has declined..). The slightly later FWD Volvos had $2500 drive-by-wire throttle modules as their weak point - now available for $370 exchange on Ebay...
Same sort of thing is true for older bikes - there's no reason to think it won't also be true of the bikes that are currently moderns...
Also: TM Bill earns my "Drunken Post of the Month" Award. ;D
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OK some good points in there about the durability of alu frames and the future after market stuff.. Perhaps my example of the Beta zero was a bad one because the bottom of trials bikes take a hammering and it was at the bottom that bits were falling off regularly.
Bill, VMX isn't about OUR perception of the ideal bike but the 30/40/50 yo's perception. Sure, presently, most of us fit into this demographic but in 20 years time there will be a new generation there and they will hanker after the YZF450's, CRF450s etc. and, as Firko says, the state of the art at that time will be electric and CF frames. The definition of VMX must change with time.
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Bill, VMX isn't about OUR perception of the ideal bike but the 30/40/50 yo's perception. Sure, presently, most of us fit into this demographic but in 20 years time there will be a new generation there and they will hanker after the YZF450's, CRF450s etc. and, as Firko says, the state of the art at that time will be electric and CF frames. The definition of VMX must change with time.
No there wont , VMX was born in the late 80s and is a passion of a couple of generations , i believe in 20 yrs some of us will still be actively involved in some aspect of VMX.
The next generations wont give a flying fork about bikes they rode or pretended to race today . We were privallidged to have lived and raced through an era when MX was at its peak and bike development was constantly evolving.
They dont have that , im sure a few will want to get involved with the VMX bikes we ride , race , own today as they were what dad , uncle , big bro raced or just because to some they will be mechanical odditys.
VMX is a sport / pastime for a couple of generations , what comes after is what it is but it aint VMX
Its not just about the bikes its about attitude and passion, we have it they dont / wont .
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Due to Greenhouse gasses/ global warming / erosion / greenies / fuel only available to the rich , I think you will only find a MX bike or any sort of off road fun vehicle on an X Box.
Forgot Dangerous. ;D
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While I understand what drives Bills negativity for the future I think the dirt bike will still be around in 20 years time but the internal combustion engine might not be powering them. I genuinely believe that battery/electric powered bikes will be pretty common and off road riding will be a whole different ball game with bikes weighing 60kg and being little bigger than a downhill mountain bike. The electric engine won't need a gearbox because of it's flat torque curve and won't need brakes because of the inherent engine braking. Frames will be made from Carbon fibre and many of the bolt ons will be made from recycled plastic.
VMX will still be around with the current crop of motocross bikes being looked upon by 2033's racers as heavy, primitive old dinosaurs. The sport will be little different to what it is today except for the bikes being used. Pre 60/65/70/75 and Evo bikes will be considered museum pieces and pre 90 bikes will be ridden by the crusty old farts and considered a bit like pre 65 is today. Pre 2000 will be the main class and the few YZ450F and CR450Fs that survived will be the ace race ride along with Husky 360 and Kato 250/300 two strokes.
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I think I agree with you there Firko. I honestly can't see MX/Enduro etc surviving as is for the next 20 years. Energy concerns, safety worries and environmental issues can be expected to become more prominent. For off-road motorcycles to survive they will need to adapt. Lighter more MTB like machinery will be the future, powered by electricity most likely. The KTM Freeride in electric guise is the forerunner in my view. I also doubt we will see motocross as extreme as it is today but you never know.
As for VMX it's anyone's guess, but it may prove difficult to convince the authorities that racing loud, polluting, petrol driven monstrosities is OK. In fact, even getting petrol in 20 years time may be impossible. A lot will depend on where the current scares re energy depletion/global warming etc end up.
Audi e-bike... a glimpse of where we are going?
(http://sphotos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/428969_320200264758829_433233305_n.jpg)
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Then again...
Nothing much has changed in the last 20 years has it? ;D
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A mate has been building electric powered MTBs. His lastest one is as quick as his YZF450 from 0~70kph - and it's been throttled back because the MTB ergos are all wrong for the amount of grunt it has. Apparently I was the first person to not spit themselves off it on their first ride..
I've been at him to fit it into a 125 or possibly big wheeled 85 roller.
If that's the future, I have no fear of it.
Petrol will become much harder to get and much more expensive, but I dont reckon there will ever come a time when petrol/petrol subsitute is simply unavailable.
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A 60kg bike with an obese generation on it sounds top heavy and dangerous. There will be home made petro-chemical plants, fuel being run around like moon shine was on the black market.
I dont think stereo typing all the baggy arse brigade as the same is fare. The percentage is probable the same as grumpy old men in VMX. ;D
Merry Christmas to all
Cheers Troy
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I became convinced that electricity is the future after doing a couple of laps around the pits and paddocks on the MA owned electric dirt bike at the Conondale Nats. I was pretty impressed with how smooth and easy to ride it was. I've got a little kids electric chopper that I found on a council cleanup and even it can drag my athletic 120kg around with ease.
(http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k495/firko2/product1_1651_zps2aae9fc6.jpg)
(http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k495/firko2/zero-x-electric-dirt-bike-3_zpsfe123cc2.jpg)
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KTM has their finger on the pulse.....
(http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k495/firko2/ktm-electric-dirtbike_zpsba289723.jpg)
And so does Stealth http://www.stealthelectricbikesusa.com/index.html (http://www.stealthelectricbikesusa.com/index.html)
(http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k495/firko2/1996912_zps0e4a6371.jpg)
Comoto is onto it as well http://thekneeslider.com/archives/2010/01/13/2010-comoto-a-very-lightweight-electric-motorcycle/ (http://thekneeslider.com/archives/2010/01/13/2010-comoto-a-very-lightweight-electric-motorcycle/)
(http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k495/firko2/comoto-production_zps95fd1ea3.jpg)
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Petrol will become much harder to get and much more expensive, but I dont reckon there will ever come a time when petrol/petrol subsitute is simply unavailable.
Brew your own fuel.
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I dont think stereo typing all the baggy arse brigade as the same is fare. The percentage is probable the same as grumpy old men in VMX. ;D
Merry Christmas to all
Cheers Troy
I apologise to the few young people out their who are decent people , our own Michael (Frosty ) is one such young person :)
So enlighten a misserable C%&T whos in VMX to the differences between one baggy arse no hoping prick and another ::)
While i see electric bikes have a future they are not for me , i have ridden one of those Zero bikes and while the novelty factor was ok it was no substitute for a motorcycle .
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You will have to accept the fact that as we get older a younger generation follows with their idea of the past ::) Firkos post pretty well sums it up
VMX will still be around with the current crop of motocross bikes being looked upon by 2033's racers as heavy, primitive old dinosaurs. The sport will be little different to what it is today except for the bikes being used. Pre 60/65/70/75 and Evo bikes will be considered museum pieces and pre 90 bikes will be ridden by the crusty old farts and considered a bit like pre 65 is today. Pre 2000 will be the main class and the few YZ450F and CR450Fs that survived will be the ace race ride along with Husky 360 and Kato 250/300 two strokes.
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You will have to accept the fact that as we get older a younger generation follows with their idea of the past ::)
You might be suprised that they may take it more seriously and insist on period riding gear etc. I know a few young bloke's who are into old British and American bikes from the 40'/50's and they live the period right down to haircuts.
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I doubt Pre '90 bikes will be viewed as heavy dinosaurs. They're a match for current bikes (with a bit of set-up) and I'm sure FAST, good handling two strokes will give a young guy a boner no matter what the date is on the calender.
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Bill on his way to liver damage, it would seem.
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You guys are so funny. But seriously fork the electrics, I only need that to pump fuel, run my A/C and the fridge. I want my petrol fumes.
And what is wrong with 4T KTM's? I have 525 that is now a tad over 5 years old and has only ever had 1 new plug and a new R. H. radiator shroud after a tangle with a jet propelled wallaby that was stone dead before it hit the ground. Bulletproof reliable so far. 8) 8)
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Why are we worried about 20 years from now when most of us will be invalids anyway! Everyonr knows a good golf green, the day Viagra doesn't work anymore - cut the shit out of it, cops go easy on seniors just pee your pants they'll know!
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Why are we worried about 20 years from now when most of us will be invalids anyway!
We may not be riding but we will probably be watching.